Welcome to my new blog here on Forbes.com. Over the new few months I’m going to be talking about a couple of quite disparate but fascinating areas: book publishing and high-impact low-probability ...

We’ve seen a number of outlier events in 2016, but the experts predicted them poorly and are labeling them “black swans.” According to Nassim Taleb, black swan events are highly unexpected for a given ...

Type 1 diabetes associated with less myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, stroke, and limb ischemia. (HealthDay News) — Diabetes mellitus type 1 (DM1) is associated with lower ...

Two events are independent if the probability of the first event happening has no impact on the probability of the second event happening. If the probability of one event happening affects the ...

Normal distribution curve that illustrates standard deviations. Each band has 1 standard deviation, and the labels indicate the approximate proportion of area . Source: M. W. Toews Creative Commons ...

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will tonight release from its meeting in Kampala, Uganda, a summary for policy makers of a forthcoming report titled Managing the Risks of Extreme ...

Probabilities can be written as fractions, decimals or percentages on a scale from 0 to 1. Knowing basic facts about equally likely outcomes can help to solve more complicated problems. Probability is ...

Looking at the events of these past few years after the pandemic, I can personally say that my confidence in predicting the future has gone down. Generally, many of us have this belief that things ...